Russia Reform Monitor, No. 768.  May 9, 2000.
American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, D.C.  http://www.afpc.org


MOSCOW WARNS U.S., TOUGHENS ARMS CONTROL STANCE; RUSSIA & CHINA MAY JOIN MILITARILY AGAINST U.S.

[Editor's note: The previous electronic issue was incorrectly numbered as issue 764.  The correct number is 767.]

April 24:

IVANOV WARNS U.S. AGAINST STRATEGIC MISSILE DEFENSE

Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov reiterates President-elect Putin's threats to pull out of all arms control treaties with the U.S. if Washington deploys a missile defense system.  Writing in the New York Times, Ivanov says that deployment of a U.S. missile defense would put the U.S. and Russia "back in an era of suspicion and disruption."  He says that instead of building defenses against a "rogue" North Korean regime, the
U.S. should have a "direct dialogue."

....BUT PROPOSES JOINT TACTICAL MISSILE DEFENSE.

In his New York Times op-ed, Ivanov writes, "Russia is prepared to cooperate with
America and other countries in creating systems of nonstrategic antimissile defense that are not banned under the 1972 ABM treaty," as defined in the still-unratified 1997 Hyde Park agreement.

RUSSIA PROPOSES JOINT MISSILE NONPROLIFERATION PROGRAM.

Ivanov also proposes that the U.S. and Russia develop a joint program "that would
prevent the proliferation of missile and missile technologies or remove incentives for acquiring them," and to "create a global control system to prevent proliferation of missiles and missile technology."  [Editor's note: Moscow claims that with its recent START II ratification, it is setting a good example for the U.S. to follow.  If so, it can set
another example by stopping the proliferation of nuclear-capable SS-N-22 "Sunburn" cruise missiles to China.]

NUNN LOOKS BACK ON NUNN-LUGAR. 
"Despite a decade of effort, the risks of 'loose nukes' are larger today than they were when these efforts began."  So writes former Senator Sam Nunn and Graham T. Allison in the Washington Post.

NUNN PROPOSES EXPANDING NUNN-LUGAR PROGRAM.

A nuclear security task force proposes that the U.S. expand the Nunn-Lugar program and related programs in Russia.  Nunn and Allison write, "Buy and take all the nuclear weapons material Russia is prepared to sell," including commercially valuable highly-enriched uranium (HEU) and plutonium (which has no commercial use).  They propose removal of "potential bomb material from the most vulnerable sites in Russia"; and a $500 million U.S. "investment" in blending-down Russia's HEU to "nonweapons-usable forms within Putin's first term."

TOUGH CONDITION PROPOSED.  Nunn and Allison add that the above deals "should be accompanied by Russia's agreement not to produce additional
nuclear materials."  [Editor's note: This is an old proposal, as expressed by Congress when it passed the Nunn-Lugar act in 1992.  Both sides ignored it.]


April 25:

 CLINTON TO LIFT SANCTIONS ON IRAN PROLIFERATORS.

"The U.S. administration has announced that it is going to lift the economic sanctions against Russia's two organizations suspected of cooperation with Iran in the missile technology field," TASS reports.  They are the INOR research center and the Polyus science and production association. State Department spokesman James Rubin says the U.S. will impose "sanctions" on Yury Savelyev, rector of the Baltic State Technical
University for supplying missile information to Iran.

RUSSIA WANTS U.S. TO RESTRICT SUBS UNDER START III. 

As part of its ploy to force the U.S. to disarm its strategic arsenal to levels with which
it more economically can compete, Russia wants the U.S. to extend START III to submarines.  According to Interfax, Russia "regards it as necessary to include in START III a provision on the reduction of submarine-based cruise missiles and envisions the restrictions on U.S. anti-submarine activity in neighboring Russian territorial waters." [Editor's note: The administration continues to raise no public
objections to Russian anti-submarine warfare activity in U.S. waters such as the Strait of Juan de Fuca in Washington State.]


April 26:

RUSSIA & CHINA MAY JOIN MILITARILY AGAINST U.S

"Russia and China may agree on joint steps, in particular in the defense field, if Washington deploys a national ABM system," Interfax reports, citing Institute of
the USA and Canada Director Sergei Rogov.  "This possibility in the face of a common threat cannot be ruled out, he said.  If the U.S. goes ahead with its plans, 'the world will be a very unpleasant place to live in,' Rogov said."

-- J. Michael Waller
Copyright (c) 2000 by the American Foreign Policy Counc
il

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